Just started listening to this unusual episode of Writing Excuses on futurism – interesting for SF writers in particular.

http://www.writingexcuses.com/2016/07/31/11-31-futurism-with-trina-marie-phillips/

Very thought-provoking if, like me, you sometimes write about postscarcity societies.

Originally shared by Yonatan Zunger

This article is part of my continued attempt to think through the changes in our modern economy. It was prompted by this plot from a 2014 article, showing how the prices of different things had changed over the previous decade: some things (like TV’s and computers) getting much cheaper, other things (child care, education) getting much more expensive.

The key thing that got me started on this was noticing that the things which got cheaper all had in common that new technologies created better economies of scale for them, while the things which got more expensive all had in common that they didn’t. This leads to some thinking about exactly what happens when a technology suddenly shifts the price of a good: when a “Magic Box” appears on the market that can make something virtually for free.

The answer appears to be a combination of three effects: one which makes everybody richer (because the good is itself cheaper; those with the most need benefit most from this stage), and two smaller “zero-sum” shifts: a shift of money away from people whose jobs were based on making the good that’s now cheap, and a shift of money towards industries which weren’t affected, essentially because more money is available to buy their goods and so they see price inflation. (Importantly, the second effect touches both workers and companies, but the third effect in many circumstances doesn’t directly affect workers – see the article for why)

This is all still relatively preliminary thinking, but I think there are some directions in here which could prove useful for understanding what’s going on in our economy and why.

https://medium.com/@yonatanzunger/what-costs-more-what-costs-less-magic-boxes-and-the-modern-economy-a8ed3fdfac6d#.e7ke22iuf

Ignore Brin’s usual frothing, and with the caveat that I haven’t had time to read this yet.

Originally shared by David Brin

Why Globalization will end because of technology, not politics!

        Some of you ask why I pal around with John Mauldin, a conservative economist, government-skeptic and dedicated (though less-so with Trump) Republican.  What? Other than the fact John’s a terrific, fun guy? Well, also his insights and critiques are everything that a sane American conservatism could bring to our national conversation and negotiation… pro-science, diversity and tolerance-friendly, pragmatic, pro—small-business… everything today’s GOP is diametrically opposed-to. We need that conservatism back! Though it will only emerge, phoenix-like, from the ashes of a monstrous Confederacy-madness that Rupert Murdoch raised with his 30 year satanic rites.

But I wander.

 Here’s a link to one of the best articles on globalization I ever read, by John’s partner Patrick Watson. It explains how globalization got its start with four major technologies… and why four more will bring about its end, returning us to an era when fleets of ships and pipelines and trucks will no longer be the lifeblood of the world economy. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiSt9q-iLDOAhVK3mMKHbJjBR0QFggeMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.advisorperspectives.com%2Fcommentaries%2F20160807-mauldin-economics-world-gone-backwards.pdf&usg=AFQjCNFj8Bl6uNqtsa9j9S0mqvKWK1-SWw&sig2=lVfa5sIPwP12McjQeEPyYw

And yes, they point out that while some have lost, due to globalization, most of the people of this planet have benefited spectacularly.  And those who oppose globalization strictly as a convenient excuse for simplistic protectionism are thus reflexively committing horrific racism.

What Patrick and John leave out is the topmost driver of 70 years of globalization.  Pax Americana.  Not only did the world order set up by George Marshall and Harry Truman protect the world from major war for an entire human lifespan, allowing 90% of nations to spend amounts on arms and armies that were minuscule compared to every past generation…

…but the trade networks they erected were diametrically different than the mercantilist regimes erected by Pax Romana, Pax Sinica, Pax Brittanica and every other empire. Pax Americana has been ANTI-mercantilist, allowing, even fostering, the development of local industries, all over the globe. This simple measure is the one innovation that uplifted first Europe and Japan, then Korea, Taiwan and so on… till now the American consumer is raising-up masses in both China and India at the same time. It is the chief reason that 3/4 of the world’s children bring school books back to homes with electric lights, toilets, running water and a modestly well-stocked fridge.

It is the prodigious American accomplishment that historians of the future will most prominently note, far above measly moon landings.

And yes, it’s time to move on from carbon-spewing globalized trade. For example: “General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt saying that “wage arbitrage” is over. Robots do not care where you install them. They cost about the same and work at equal speed no matter where they are. Robotics will greatly reduce the incentive to make goods far from the end user simply to save on labor costs. The new incentive will be to produce in proximity to your customer. This will let you deliver faster and offer greater customization.”

Local production, robotics, local food, these trends will build, bringing benefits and troubles of their own. But all the tech trends seem to point in this direction. And about time. Given the nature of their newsletter audience, John and Patrick only glancingly nod at the top reason to reduce our use of fossil fuels. But I won’t begrudge them the gentleness of their ministry to the near-terminally delusional.  At least they are trying.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiSt9q-iLDOAhVK3mMKHbJjBR0QFggeMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.advisorperspectives.com%2Fcommentaries%2F20160807-mauldin-economics-world-gone-backwards.pdf&usg=AFQjCNFj8Bl6uNqtsa9j9S0mqvKWK1-SWw&sig2=lVfa5sIPwP12McjQeEPyYw

Originally shared by Peter Svensson

http://gizmodo.com/this-sensor-can-be-implanted-in-your-body-and-is-the-si-1784796417